Monday, October 27, 2008

Week Game 8 Summary:

R - Adam, Cain, Canadian, Chenault, Chris, Day, Josh, J-Wil, & Rick
Y - Capo, Carlos, Casey, Jesse, Julian, Louis, Nick, & Pirate

Game runs 8 on 8.

Yellow Drive #1
1-12 from the 8: Run by Nick for 6 yards - stopped by Canadian.
2-6 from the 14: Pass by Nick to Louis - dropped.
3-6 from the 14: Nick - sacked by Josh. Loss of 9 yards.
4-15 from the 5: Punt by Nick for 33 yards.

Red Drive #1
1-18 from the 38: Pass by Cain to Josh - intercepted by Capo - stopped by Canadian.

Yellow Drive #2
1-1 from the 19: Pass by Nick to Capo - incomplete. Overthrown.
2-1 from the 19: Nick - sacked by Chenault. Loss of 0 yards.
3-1 from the 19: Pass by Nick to Julian - 11 yard gain - stopped by Cain.
1-10 from the 30: Pass by Nick to Jesse - 2 yard gain - stopped by Canadian.
2-8 from the 32: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 12 yard gain - stopped by Adam.
1-16 from the 36: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 14 yard gain - stopped by Canadian.
2-2 from the 22: Pass by Nick to Capo - incomplete. Ball high and wide.
3-2 from the 22: Pass by Nick to Pirate - incomplete.
4-2 from the 22: Run by Nick for 22 yards and the TD. 1 - 0, Yellow.

Red Drive #2
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Cain to Chris - 30 yard gain - stopped by Pirate.
1-2 from the 38: Pass by Cain to J-Wil - incomplete. Ball a little long.
2-2 from the 38: Run by Cain for 8 yards - stopped by Carlos.
1-14 from the 34: Pass by Cain to Josh - incomplete.
2-14 from the 34: Pass by Cain to Canadian - 12 yard gain - stopped by Nick. Canadian gets the ball on 2 yard underneath route and takes it across and up the field.
3-2 from the 22: Pass by Cain to Chris - 22 yard gain and the TD. 1 - 1, Tie.

Yellow Drive #3
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Louis - incomplete.
2-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Casey - incomplete.
3-12 from the 8: Nick - sacked by Chris. Loss of 6 yards.
4-18 from the 2: Punt by Nick for 37 yards.

Red Drive #3
1-19 from the 39: Pass by Cain to Day - 39 yard gain and the TD. 2 - 1, Red.

Yellow Drive #4
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Pirate - incomplete. Pirate slipped on his route.
2-12 from the 8: Nick - sacked by Chris. Loss of 7 yards.
3-19 from the 1: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 40 yard gain - stopped by going out of bounds. Cain tipped it but Pirate made the catch anyway.
1-19 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Pirate - incomplete. Pirate slipped on his route.
2-19 from the 39: Nick throws the ball away. QB pressure by Chris and Josh.
3-19 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Louis - defensed by Adam.
4-19 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Louis - dropped. Turnover on downs.

Red Drive #4
1-1 from the 39: Pass by Cain to Josh - 16 yard gain - stopped by Louis.
1-5 from the 25: Pass by Cain to Josh - defensed by Nick.
2-5 from the 25: Run by Cain for 7 yards - stopped by Pirate.
1-Goal from the 18: Pass by Cain to Chenault - 18 yard gain and the TD. 3 - 1, Red.

Yellow Drive #5
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Capo - incomplete.
2-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Casey - 6 yard gain - stopped by Day.
3-6 from the 14: Pass by Nick to Carlos - incomplete.
4-6 from the 14: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 27 yard gain - stopped by J-Wil.
1-19 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Capo - incomplete.
2-19 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Jesse - 2 yard gain - stopped by Canadian.
3-17 from the 37: Pass by Nick to Pirate - incomplete.
4-17 from the 37: Pass by Nick to Jesse - 18 yard gain - stopped by going out of bounds.
1-Goal from the 19: Run by Nick for 1 yards - stopped by Chris.
2-Goal from the 18: Pass by Nick to Capo - 18 yard gain and the TD. 3 - 2, Red.

Red Drive #5
1-12 from the 8: Run by Cain for 8 yards - stopped by Nick.
2-4 from the 16: Pass by Cain to Canadian - 64 yard gain and the TD. Broken play. 4 - 2, Red.

Yellow Drive #6
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Jesse - incomplete. Ball a little long.
2-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Pirate - defensed by J-Wil.
3-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 11 yard gain - stopped by going out of bounds.
4-1 from the 19: Pass by Nick to Jesse - incomplete.

Red Drive #6
1-Goal from the 19: Backward pass by Cain to Chris. Chris throws to Josh. Ball tipped by Louis but Josh catches the ball 4 inches off the ground. Terrific catch. 5 - 2, Red.

Yellow Drive #7
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Louis - 17 yard gain - stopped by Adam.
1-15 from the 25: Pass by Nick to Carlos - 14 yard gain - stopped by Adam.
2-1 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Capo - 13 yard gain - stopped by Canadian.
1-8 from the 28: Pass by Nick to Carlos - defensed by Adam. Adam almost picked it but only got 1 foot in.
2-8 from the 28: Pass by Nick to Louis - 28 yard gain and the TD. 5 - 3, Red.

Red Drive #7
1-12 from the 8: Cain throws the ball away.
2-12 from the 8: Pass by Cain to Canadian - 37 yard gain - stopped by Jesse.
1-15 from the 35: Pass by Cain to Chenault - defensed by Pirate.
2-15 from the 35: Pass by Cain to Canadian - 35 yard gain and the TD. Really nice throw in tight coverage. 6 - 3, Red.

Yellow Drive #8
1-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Jesse - incomplete. Ball out of bounds on a fly.
2-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Julian - incomplete.
3-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Jesse - defensed by Adam. Adam should have picked it.
4-12 from the 8: Pass by Nick to Pirate - incomplete. Ball long.

Red Drive #8
1-Goal from the 8: Run by Chris - stopped for loss by Carlos. Loss of 4 yards. Reverse - handoff to Rick and handoff back to Chris.
2-Goal from the 12: Pass by Cain to Chris - 12 yard gain and the TD. Josh was more open on this play but apparently Cain felt that fitting a ball between several defenders as Chris ran a crossing route in the middle of the endzone was the play to make. 7 - 3, Red.

Yellow Drive #9
1-12 from the 8: Run by Nick for 18 yards - stopped by Cain.
1-14 from the 26: Pass by Nick to Capo - defensed by Adam.
2-14 from the 26: Pass by Nick to Julian - 13 yard gain - stopped by Day.
3-1 from the 39: Pass by Nick to Carlos - 3 yard gain - stopped by Rick.
1-18 from the 38: Pass by Nick to Louis - 23 yard gain - stopped by Adam.
1-Goal from the 15: Run by Nick for 9 yards - stopped by Cain. Nick's trademark giggle is heard in the recording as he pump fakes 5 yards past the line of scrimmage and makes yet another defender bite.
2-Goal from the 6: Pass by Nick to Louis - defensed by Canadian. Actually Louis climbs Canadian's back to prevent the pick.
3-Goal from the 6: Pass by Nick to Carlos - defensed by Adam and intercepted by Day - stopped by touchback.

Red Drive #9
1-12 from the 8: Cain - sacked by Jesse. Loss of 5 yards.
2-17 from the 3: Pass by Cain to Chris - 7 yard gain - stopped by Pirate.
3-10 from the 10: Pass by Cain to Canadian - incomplete. Ball wide.
4-10 from the 10: Punt by Cain for 25 yards.

Yellow Drive #10
1-15 from the 35: Run by Nick for 8 yards - stopped by Day.
2-7 from the 27: Pass by Nick to Pirate - 2 yard gain - stopped by Cain.
3-5 from the 25: Nick - sacked by Josh. Loss of 5 yards.
4-10 from the 30: Pass by Nick to Jesse - intercepted by Day - stopped by Jesse. Day should have just knocked this one down.

Red Drive #10
1-2 from the 18: Pass by Cain to Rick - defensed by Nick. QB pressure by Capo. Nick should have picked this.
2-2 from the 18: Run by Cain for 62 yards and the TD. Key block by Rick. That's Game. 8 - 3, Red.


Passing Stats:
Players Comp Drops Attempts % Yards TDs INTs Sacked Yds Lost Rating
Nick 19 2 51 37.25% 247 2 2 5 -27 50.04
Cain 12 0 21 57.14% 287 6 1 1 -5 121.53
Chris 1 0 1 100.00% 19 1 0 0 0 158.33

Lot of passing offense again this week - nearly 600 yards. Cain's numbers, however were really something. Only 12 passes completed but they were worth 287 yards and 6 of them were for TDs. Only one pick and one sack. Quite a day for someone who hadn't been out in a month and who hadn't play QB since week 2 (when he was 2 of 9 for 16 yards, a pick and a sack).

Receiving/Rushing Stats:
Players Recpts Targets Yards Rec TDs Rushes Yards Rush TDs Combined Blocks 1st Downs
Adam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cain 0 0 0 0 4 85 1 85 0 2
Canadian 4 5 148 2 0 0 0 148 0 1
Chenault 1 2 18 1 0 0 0 18 0 0
Chris 5 5 71 2 1 -4 0 67 0 1
Day 1 1 39 1 0 0 0 39 0 0
Josh 2
4 35
1
0 0 0 35
0 1
J-Wil 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rick 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Capo 2 7 31 1 0 0 0 31 0 1
Carlos 2 5 17 0 0 0 0 17 0 1
Casey 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
Jesse 3 8 22 0 0 0 0 22 0 1
Julian 2 3 24 0 0 0 0 24 0 1
Louis 3 8 68 1 0 0 0 68 0 2
Nick 0 0 0 0 6 64 1 64 0 1
Pirate 6 12 106 0 0 0 0 106 0 3

Wow, Canadian is the leading receiver without Nick throwing to him. Maybe he's actually that good : ) As if there were any doubt - 4 catches on 5 targets for 148 yards and 2 TDs. Other big days were had by Chris with 67 yards and 2 TDs and Louis with 68 ards and a TD. Pirate had a very nice debut with 106 yards on 6 catches.

Defensive Stats:
Players Flags Pass Def INTs Strips Sacks/ Stops for Loss Pressures Safeties Def TDs
Adam 4 4
0 0 0 0 0 0
Cain 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Canadian 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chenault 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Chris 3 0 0 0 2 0.5 0 0
Day 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Josh 3 0 0 0 2 0.5 0 0
J-Wil 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rick 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capo 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Carlos 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Casey 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jesse 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Julian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Louis 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nick 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pirate 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Defensive leaders were Adam with 4 defensed passes, Chris and Josh who each had 2 sacks and a 1/2 pressure. Day had 2 picks (one, somewhat ill-advised), Capo had a pick and a pressure, and Nick had two defensed passes.

Special Teams Stats:
Players Punts Punt Yards Punts Fielded
Cain 1 25 0
Nick 2 70 0

Awards:

Normally I like the MVP to go to a person who had a strong game on both offense and defense but this week, I think it clearly belongs to Cain. Canadian picks up the offensive player of the game award though Chris made a strong play for it - his pass to Josh probably would not have been caught had it not been tipped by Louis and even then it took an amazing catch. Adam gets the defensive player of the game.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

New QB Run Rule

At the beginning of the season, QB running restrictions were reduced temporarily to see whether it would enhance the game. This was a controversial decision and one that excited a great deal of debate but ultimately, the changes were rolled out with the understanding that after experimenting with them, they would be analyzed. The purpose of this post is to summarize the analysis, not to summarize the arguments in favor or against the new rule.

The first seven games of the season have offered a set data to evaluate the impact of the rule changes. There have been games of Large (18), Medium (16), Small (14), and even Very Small (12) sizes:


# of Series by Size of Game
Week Large (18) Med (16) Small (14) Very Small (12)
1 14 4 0 0
2 20 2 0
0
3 25 0
0
0
4 0 0
26 0
5 4 7 10 0
6 13 2 0
0
7 0 0 19 3


What’s interesting about the data is that because there were so many size changes, it’s possible to see how QB running changed within the same game as the size of the game increased or decreased. Game level data are presented after the Findings.

Finding #1 - QBs Run more in Small/Medium games than they do in Large games even though QBs can run on every play in the Large games but only once per set of downs in the Small/Medium games:


Large Med Small Very Small
# of Series by Size 76 15 55 3
QB Runs 33 8 26 0
QB Runs Per Series 0.434 0.533 0.473 0


Finding #2 - In the aggregate, the smaller the game, the more success QBs have running the ball. Average Per Carry for QB runs is higher in Medium games than Large games and higher still in Small games than Medium Games. QB Runs in Medium games average roughly 50% more than yards than QB Runs in Large games. QB Runs in Small games average over 90% more yards than QB Runs in Large Games. Further QB runs have much higher yards per carry the RB runs:





Finding #3 - Individual QBs have higher yards per QB run in Medium/Small games than Large games. This is a supplement to Finding #2 and only involved an analysis of Nick and Street because they were the only QBs who had had a sufficient number of QB runs in different sized games to analyze (and Street, only barely).





These are the statistics. You can argue all you want with the implications and what we should do but the numbers are what they are.

Here are the per game running plays, running summaries, and QB summaries:

Week 1




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Comments
Burleson QB 18 Med
Jesse RB 7 Med
Street QB 12 Large
Cain QB 9 Large
Nick QB -2 Large designed run
Mark RB 7 Large
Nick QB 3 Large
Nick QB 11 Large designed run
Cain QB 14 Large
Nick QB 15 Large designed run
Cain QB 10 Large

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 2 14 7.00
Burleson 14 1
QB Runs 9 90 10.00
Cain 28 3
Receptions 29 355 12.24 2
Street 18 1






Nick 17 5

Week 2




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Mark RB 1 Med
Mark RB -1 Med
Leo RB 3 Large
Street RB 5 TD Large
Nick QB 2 Large
Leo RB 15 TD Large Basically a reverse
Nick QB 15 Large These are three plays in a row
Nick QB 7 Large
Nick QB 13 Large
Cain QB 7 Large
Cain QB 4 Large
Nick QB 8 Large
Nick QB 0 Large
Street QB 4 Large

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 5 23 4.60 1
Street 41 1
QB Runs 9 60 6.67 1
Cain 9 2
Receptions 28 330 11.79 4
Nick 30 6

Week 3




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Street QB 30 Large
Street QB 7 Large
Nick QB 9 Large
Nick QB 10 Large
Leo QB 7 Large
Nick QB 4 Large
Nick QB 13 Large
Leo QB 7 Large
Chris RB -2 Large
Chris RB 15 Large
Nick QB 1 Large

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 2 13 6.50
Street 16 2
QB Runs 9 88 9.78
Leo 26 2
Receptions 31 483 15.58 5
Nick 50 6

Week 4




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Chenault RB -1 Small
Nick QB 10 TD Small
Nick QB 5 Small
Burleson QB 41 Small
Jermaine RB 8 Small
Kuzi QB 9 Small Direct Snap Play
Nick QB 6 Small Option Play with Pitch to Kuzi
Kuzi RB 14 Small
Kuzi RB 0 Small
Jesse RB -5 Small
Burleson QB 10 Small
Nick QB 16 Small
Nick QB 17 Small
Nick QB 12 Small
Burleson QB 11 Small
Nick QB 2 Small

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 5 16 3.20
Nick 39 8
QB Runs 11 139 12.64
Burleson 47 3
Receptions 22 243 11.05
Kuzi 0 1

Week 5




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Nick QB 6 Large
Nick QB 5 Large
Street QB 20 Med
Street QB 12 Med
Nick QB 7 Med
Nick QB 28 TD Small
Leo QB 4 Small
Nick QB 15 Small
Nick QB 20 Small
Canadian RB -1 Small
Nick QB 22 Small
Nick QB 6 Small
Nick QB 10 Small

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 1 -1 -1.00
Street 22 2
QB Runs 12 155 12.92 1
Leo 15 1
Receptions 25 428 17.12 5
Nick 33 9

Week 6




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Nick QB 10 Med
Nick QB 5 Med
Nick QB 16 Med
Street QB 9 Med This could have been a 63 yard TD run if an illegal block call had gone differently
Nick QB 3 Large
Street QB 9 Large
Jesse RB -4 Large
Street QB 7 Large
Street QB 8 Large
Street QB 10 Large

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 1 -4 -4.00
Nick 50 4
QB Runs 9 77 8.56
Street 30 5
Receptions 35 522 14.91 7
Leo 1 0


Week 7




Run Play Listing
Player Type Yards TD? Size Misc. Comments
Nick QB 11 Small
Nick QB 16 Small
Jeremy QB 17 Small
Jeremy QB 72 TD Small
Jeremy QB 22 Small
Jeremy QB 5 Small
Jeremy QB 12 TD Small
Nick RB 6 Small Hook-n-ladder right at the line is more of a "RB run" than a "QB run" since there are more defenders in the area
Nick QB 11 Small

Summary # Yards Avg Yds TDs
QB Summary Passes Runs
RB Runs 1 6 NA
Nick 45 4
QB Runs 8 172 21.50 2
Jeremy 28 5
Receptions 31 634 20.45 6



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